Energetics bound by the laws of physics

(3. continuation of the article Decarbonisation natural or controlled?)

In a previous blog I tried to explain that energy is a long run, and it is this kind of overthinking and overlooking that will have a delayed impact in the future.

I don’t want to burden you with an interpretation of Kirchhoff’s or Ohm’s laws, I will just try to explain, using the example of what consumers demand from the electricity supply, what assumptions arising from the laws of physics must be met.

So what parameters do I require as a consumer?

1. I have enough electricity at the time and place I want to use it.
2. Physical parameters such as e.g. voltage and frequency to ensure proper functioning of appliances.
3. Continuity of supply is assured, the network simply delivers reliably. In the event of a storm, we tolerate downtime, but hours, not days.
4. And because it works, we only care about price (it’s not about physics here, it’s about business models) and take the rest for granted.

Let’s see what points 1 to 3 mean.

I have enough electricity at the time I want to consume

This simple requirement says that instantaneous consumption determines the quantity of production and not the other way around. Production must equal consumption at all times. If there is no consumption, production must be reduced. Failure to comply with the requirement would lead to grid instability, local congestion, and ultimately to grid collapse. Therefore, resources are regulated to prevent network outages, congestion. That’s why system services exist when instability occurs. That is why we have set up a system of protections and interlocks in the transmission and distribution systems at substations and sources.

So far, the generation portfolios of the power sector have been based on controllable resources, i.e. they are able to produce according to consumption, both increasing the instantaneous energy supplied and decreasing it. Changes to the system were basically only introduced by changes in consumption.

With the development of renewables, a significant amount of resources are being added to the grid that are not able to produce when they are needed, but when the conditions are right (sun, wind). Another characteristic is their coincidence, i.e. they produce all of them at the same time in principle. And another characteristic is their seasonality, especially for photovoltaic power plants this means production during the period of lower energy consumption.

What could be the consequences? If about 10 GW of photovoltaics are installed in the Czech Republic, then their concurrence will go against the consumption of 4 – 6 GWh, for example in summer or on a sunny Easter weekend, which means about half of them will not be able to supply energy to the grid. In reality, it will be more, because to secure points 2 and 3 you have to keep controllable sources in operation, plus sources that are not suitable to be disconnected (typically sites with nuclear power plants). So under these assumptions, and in these situations, about 2/3 of the installed capacity of the PV plant will not find its consumption.

But that would be a big mistake. It is therefore necessary to look for solutions…

1. Battery storage, a short-term solution for storing energy for later consumption (days).
2. Transforming electricity into sectors where it is not yet used en masse, thereby increasing consumption. Transformation into heat, into hydrogen, into transport.
3. Changing consumer behaviour. Directing flexible consumption to the period of expected overproduction from PV.

These three points are just as important as the whole promotion of photovoltaics. If we neglect them, we will have resources, but due to the laws of physics they will not produce. Unfortunately, I don’t feel that enough importance has been given to them yet.

Compliance with physical parameters at all locations

The energy transmission and distribution system must ensure that the required voltage and frequency are present at every point in the system, i.e. that our appliances work properly.

The change that is taking place is called decentralisation of energy production. In practice, this means that many small producers will be connected to networks built to supply from centralised production to the consumer, but in the end they will have a significant share of the supply. If I am to maintain the quality of supply at every point, I must technically adapt the networks. If I don’t, I’m at risk of local problems. Yes, from a distance it looks like distributors are inflexible, they don’t want to connect what we plan. They recalculate the parameters, what the network can still tolerate and what not, they give limiting conditions. Up close, for me, they basically make sure that everything works the way it should at home, in our businesses.

So without significant investment to adapt the transmission system, distribution systems and transmission capacity abroad, we run the risk of simplistically malfunctioning appliances. These investments are just as important as investments in renewables or storage.

Ensured continuity of supply

The entire system from the source to the point of consumption must be arranged in such a way as to guarantee the reliability of supply.

Reliability is due to the fact that I have sufficient resources that are able to compensate for any irregularity in supply or consumption, either by reducing or increasing the supply to the network. The system from sources to appliances is able to cope with different conditions. Yes, by connecting across borders, building virtual manufacturing, aggregating flexibility, we gain additional tools, but these are ancillary and not essential. Reliability of supply is fundamentally determined by the structure of resources to the structure of consumption. I see the disconnection of 6 GW of installed capacity of coal-fired power plants on the basis of their being driven off the market by the price of allowances and their failure to be replaced at the same time by approximately the same amount of controllable capacity from low-emission sources as decarbonisation in the elements. The idea of maintaining the stability of the system by imports is naive. For me, it is a sign of a reckless approach and an abdication of responsibility for the stability of the system. “Help yourself and you will be helped”.

In the next and last part of this article I will focus on the political charge of the energy sector.

Vladimír Hlavinka, owner of ORGREZ Group and founder of ORGREZ ECO